Bits + Bips
Exploring how crypto and macro collide one basis point at a time
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The bar bitcoin has to clear was reset by the bond market, not by Washington, and almost nobody is quoting the number.
New SEC staff guidance says a token buyback on its own doesn't make a crypto asset a security, as long as no central party controls the network. But buyers should read the fine print.
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ETFs bought a little more bitcoin early in this rally than in August's. What's new is the options dealers and borrowed bets alongside them, and Friday's options expiry ended the dealers' part.
Bitcoin fell far less than crypto stocks when the bill stalled. Its real tests are the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.
The fee switch is priced as if the buying has already started. It hasn't, and the revenue that would fund it is what currently pays for the growth the switch is waiting on.
The market is pricing a liquidity flood that hasn't been released, and the trade that actually works is the slower one underneath it.
Perps have taken over crypto trading, but centralized volume just hit a 31-month low and the venue everyone calls cheap trades at twice the multiple its dashboard shows.
The pure-play Bitcoin treasury strategy may be dead. Strategy's credit model is struggling. Is cash flow the answer?
Four questions separate a bankable AI lease from a press release.
What the numbers say about OUSD's threat to Circle.
